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TRD Global Dashboard

Country-level displacement risk metrics mapped to the Theory of Recursive Displacement

Curated snapshot — last updated 2026-03-15. Metrics scored 0–100 from World Bank WGI, ILO, IFR, and institute-derived composite indices.

Country Archetypes

Five development pathways through displacement

A

Contracting + Strong State

Aging demographics and high state capacity absorb displacement through shrinking labor force — but risk pension and care-system collapse.

4 countries tracked

A-Auth

Contracting + Authoritarian

State-directed automation at scale with demographic contraction. High displacement risk concentrated in export manufacturing and state enterprise sectors.

1 country tracked

B

Informal + Weak State

Low current automation but high vulnerability to export-channel disruption and remittance collapse as advanced economies automate.

5 countries tracked

C

Mid-Industrial Export-Dependent

Economies built on labor-cost arbitrage face acute displacement as nearshoring and automation erode their competitive position.

6 countries tracked

E

Advanced Liberal Democratic

Highest AI capability and adoption. Displacement manifests as structural exclusion from cognitive work, not mass unemployment — the orchestration class consolidates.

2 countries tracked

Displacement Risk by Country

Comparative metrics

Click any column header to sort. All values on a 0–100 normalized scale.

Country Type State Capacity Labor Formal. Demo. Trajectory Robot Density AI Readiness TRD Risk
United States E 82 88 52 55 95 78
United Kingdom E 85 90 48 42 88 74
China A-Auth 78 65 30 52 79 72
South Korea A 85 89 15 100 86 65
Vietnam C 55 45 60 18 32 62
Japan A 88 92 18 95 82 61
Mexico C 45 42 55 22 35 60
Bangladesh C 32 35 72 5 16 58
Philippines C 38 38 65 8 28 56
Germany A 90 94 25 78 80 55
Cambodia C 28 25 68 3 12 55
Italy A 72 82 20 62 58 52
Ethiopia C 24 14 90 1 9 48
Pakistan B 30 20 85 4 18 42
Kenya B 35 22 88 3 22 40
Nigeria B 28 18 95 2 15 38
Tanzania B 25 12 92 1 10 32
Nepal B 22 15 78 1 8 30

Methodology

  • State Capacity — World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (Government Effectiveness), normalized.
  • Labor Formalization — ILO formal employment share, adjusted for sectoral composition.
  • Demographic Trajectory — UN population projections. High = young/growing, Low = aging/contracting.
  • Robot Density — IFR industrial robot installations per 10k manufacturing workers, normalized.
  • AI Readiness — Composite of Oxford Insights AI Readiness, Stanford HAI index, and government AI strategy maturity.
  • TRD Risk — Institute-derived composite score measuring near-term vulnerability to recursive displacement dynamics.

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